Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 50 km/h 0.3 m 398 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Sep 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 8 10 Sep 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 11 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Sep 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 12 Sep 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico47,635 
100-250 mmMexico684,967 
50-100 mmMexico1,120,531 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 229 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 232 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 10 Sep 2021 00:00 266 170 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 8 10 Sep 2021 12:00 55 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 11 Sep 2021 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 12 Sep 2021 00:00 398 730 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2021 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2021 09:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2021 09:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2021 09:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 02:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 03:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 03:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 09:30 San Blas Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 09:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 23:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 02:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 02:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 01:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 05:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 00:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 03:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 02:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 01:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 12:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 01:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 03:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 03:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 07:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 00:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 13:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 19:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 19:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 05:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 05:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Barron Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 13:00 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Tripui Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 08:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 08:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1