Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
08 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (08 Sep 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.2 m 168 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico53,698 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 229 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 337 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Aguaje, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Sep 2021 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Sep 2021 22:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 16:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 17:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 17:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 16:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 15:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 23:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 21:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 15:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 15:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 La Lima Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 02:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 07:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 14:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 15:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1