Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
09 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Sep 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 83 km/h 0.3 m 222 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico218,597 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico348,049 
50-100 mmMexico110,602 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 229 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 285 350 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Sep 2021 09:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Sep 2021 09:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 09:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 08:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 18:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 03:30 San Blas Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 03:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:45 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 08:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 08:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 12:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 12:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 06:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 02:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 02:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 02:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 12:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 08:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 00:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 08:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 16:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 03:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 03:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 20:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 15:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 03:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chamela Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chula Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Marmol Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1