Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
11 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.2 m 99 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Sep 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 8 10 Sep 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 11 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico173,441 
50-100 mmMexico445,686 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 229 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 232 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 10 Sep 2021 00:00 266 170 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 8 10 Sep 2021 12:00 55 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 11 Sep 2021 00:00 214 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2021 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2021 09:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2021 09:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2021 09:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2021 00:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 23:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 03:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 03:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 00:00 La Florida Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 00:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 06:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 00:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 00:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 00:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 00:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 La Lima Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 05:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 09:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 10:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 03:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chula Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 09:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 09:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chamela Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 03:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 06:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Barron Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 03:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 03:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Tripui Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 08:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 00:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1