Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (14 Oct 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.4 m 270 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 7 12 Oct 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 13 Oct 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 13 Oct 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 10 14 Oct 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico306,982
+
United States112,833 
Mexico194,149 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico11,417,486
+
United States5,734,554 
Mexico5,682,931 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 215 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 12 Oct 2021 12:00 160 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 8 13 Oct 2021 00:00 241 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 13 Oct 2021 12:00 203 30 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 10 14 Oct 2021 00:00 270 310 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Gloria, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2021 01:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Oct 2021 01:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 01:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 15:30 Matagorda United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 15:30 Chinquapin United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 15:45 Spanish Village United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 15:45 Austwell United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 15:45 Seadrift United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 19:30 Buena Vista United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 19:30 Holly Beach United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 19:30 Laguna Vista United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 19:30 Laguna Heights United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 19:30 Port Isabel United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 19:30 South Padre Island United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Carancahua United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Palacios United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Collegeport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Simpsonville United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Estes United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Rockport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Copano Village United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Fulton United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Lamar United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 North Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Gardendale United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Doyle United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Orange Grove United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Portland United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Gregory United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 19:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 19:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 19:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 21:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:15 Olivia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:15 Weedhaven United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:15 Port Alto United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 21:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:30 Indianola United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Peary Place United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 21:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:00 Yarborough United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Port Aransas United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 13:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:45 El Martillo United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 22:15 La Choya Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 22:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 22:15 Salinas Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 22:15 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 22:15 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:30 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 19:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 19:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 22:15 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 23:15 El Tular Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 23:15 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:45 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1