Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Oct 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 115 km/h 0.3 m 403 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 870 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico866,892 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 13 Oct 2021 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico24,692 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico343,560
+
United States133,250 
Mexico210,310 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico2,634,298
+
United States1,768,386 
Mexico865,911 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 153 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 208 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 13 Oct 2021 06:00 403 370 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 23:15 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 23:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Barron Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Chinquapin United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:30 Loreto Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Estes United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Rockport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Copano Village United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Fulton United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Lamar United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 North Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Doyle United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Portland United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Rosario Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 21:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Spanish Village United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Austwell United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Long Mott United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Carancahua United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Palacios United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Collegeport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Simpsonville United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
15 Oct 2021 03:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Indianola United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Olivia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Weedhaven United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Port Alto United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:30 La Choya Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Peary Place United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 Buena Vista United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Port Aransas United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 14:00 Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 21:45 Mirador Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Yarborough United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 22:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 22:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 21:15 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:45 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:45 Erendria Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:00 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1