Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (12 Oct 06:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 130 km/h 0.2 m 122 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.4 m 440 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico1,751,443
+
United States722,510 
Mexico1,028,933 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 112 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

440 mm

Up to 5 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico4,991,797
+
United States4,784,081 
Mexico207,716 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico7,522,920
+
United States6,562,631 
Mexico960,288 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 333 5 million
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Puerto Penasco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2021 06:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Estes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Rockport United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Copano Village United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Fulton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Holiday Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 08:15 Lamar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 Matagorda United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 Riviera United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 Vattman United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 Loyola Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 Orange Grove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:00 La Parra Landing United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Corpus Christi United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 North Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Gardendale United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Doyle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Orange Grove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Portland United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Gregory United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Ingleside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.1