Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
24 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (24 Oct 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 90 km/h 0.3 m 188 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 61 km/h 0.5 m 435 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

61 km/h

Up to 110 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico108,515 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 24 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 24 Oct 2021 12:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico108,118 
100-250 mmMexico1,138,010 
50-100 mmMexico2,103,023 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 00:00 194 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 12:00 266 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 12:00 149 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 24 Oct 2021 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 24 Oct 2021 12:00 365 1.2 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Choya, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2021 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2021 20:00 La Choya Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2021 20:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2021 18:15 Holly Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:15 Cameron United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 20:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Cedar Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Beach City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Oak Island United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Anahuac United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:15 Constance Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:15 Peveto Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Webster United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Clear Lake City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Nassau Bay United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Kilkare United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Lakeside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Taylor Lake United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 La Porte United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 El Lago United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Clear Lake Shores United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Kemah United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Shoreacres United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Bayside Terrace United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Todville United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Morgan's Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Bayview United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Red Bluff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Seabrook United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Morgan Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Baytown United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Bacliff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 Pelly United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:15 San Leon United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 17:15 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:45 Smith Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Fort Travis United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Flake United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Elmgrove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Patton United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Caplen United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 Gilchrist United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 17:00 Sabine United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 17:00 Sabine Pass United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Nadeau United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Texas City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Virginia Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 16:15 Galveston United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 15:30 High Island United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 22:15 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 22:15 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 19:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 19:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 19:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Sixmile United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Lavaca United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Alamo Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Point Comfort United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Olivia United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Weedhaven United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Alto United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Peterson Landing United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Port Morris United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Sea Isle United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Hitchcock United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 19:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Indianola United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Carancahua United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 21:30 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 21:30 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 19:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 22:15 Arista Mexico  0.1