Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-21
in India
12 Nov 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FOUR-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (14 Nov 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.3 m 376 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 68 km/h 0.3 m 376 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 11 Nov 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 11 Nov 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 11 Nov 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 12 Nov 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia2,698,882 
100-250 mmIndia5,922,770 
50-100 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Maldives52,026,614
+
India50,346,493 
Sri Lanka1,674,815 
Maldives5,305 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 11 Nov 2021 06:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 11 Nov 2021 12:00 31 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 11 Nov 2021 18:00 33 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 12 Nov 2021 00:00 370 8.1 million
- - - India, Maldives




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Jaffna, Sri Lanka. This height is estimated for 14 Nov 2021 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mIndia, Sri Lanka39,939
+
India31,017 
Sri Lanka8,922 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.3
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Idaikkadu Sri Lanka  0.3
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.3
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.3
11 Nov 2021 11:15 Durgarajupatnam India  0.3
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Kurichchikadu Sri Lanka  0.2
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Kayts Sri Lanka  0.2
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Kankesanturai Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 16:30 Hukitala India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 16:30 Satabhaya India  0.2
14 Nov 2021 01:00 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 13:45 Kodur India  0.2
13 Nov 2021 21:00 Talaimannar Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 21:00 Chiruttoppu Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 21:00 Mannar Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Vedaranyam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Vedaranniyam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 10:15 Therunattam India  0.2
13 Nov 2021 21:00 Periyavilankuli Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 15:15 Bijavbati India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Kelambakkam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Madhavaram India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Chennai India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 11:15 Chakicherla India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 07:30 Ennore India  0.2
14 Nov 2021 01:15 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Ullapalem India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Pakala India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 07:30 Vatturupallepalem India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 07:30 Govundlapalem India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 11:15 Kottapatnam India  0.2
13 Nov 2021 21:00 Silavatturai Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 11:30 Tirumullaivasal India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 11:30 Kaveripattanam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 11:15 Kakinada India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Tiruvottiyur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 11:00 Lankavanidibba India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:15 Mahabalipuram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 11:30 Velangann India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:45 Nagappattinam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:15 Peddapatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Karaikal India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Accarapatam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:30 Bideipur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Pondicherry India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Kalapettai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Marakkanam India  0.1
13 Nov 2021 21:00 Anaippapan Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:45 Kuvattur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 07:45 Porto Novo India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:00 Konada India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 13:15 Purnankuppam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:30 Rasalpur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Anaitivu Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Arukarkudah Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Kodigeri India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 08:00 Tranquebar India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 08:00 Tarangambadi India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:30 Chittivalasa India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 18:30 Point Pedro Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 18:30 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:15 Koyyam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 17:15 Dharmavaram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 08:45 Aliavalai Sri Lanka  0.1
13 Nov 2021 14:30 Atirampattinam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 11:00 Gollapalem India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 11:00 Antarvedi India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:15 Thoothukkudi India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 04:00 Vellankulam Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 15:45 Chandipur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 16:30 Foul Point Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 20:00 Venkatapuram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 20:00 Pata Polvaram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 20:00 Pudimadaka India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 20:00 Chipurupalle India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Brynthuraichenai Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Sittandy Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Vedakudiyiruppu Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Batticaloa Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Kattankudi Sri Lanka  0.1