Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
01 Feb 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (01 Feb 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 112 km/h 0.1 m 117 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 227 km/h 0.8 m 2013 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

227 km/h

Up to 1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion1,042,750
+
Madagascar5,184 
Mauritius354,478 
Reunion683,087 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmReunion2,790 
750-1000 mmReunion2,874 
500-750 mmReunion20,530 
250-500 mmMauritius, Reunion121,424
+
Mauritius31,416 
Reunion90,007 
100-250 mmMauritius, Reunion608,580
+
Mauritius319,620 
Reunion288,960 
50-100 mmMauritius, Madagascar, Reunion1,047,576
+
Mauritius590,078 
Madagascar97,732 
Reunion359,765 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 370 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 150 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 1 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 2 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 4 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 281 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 1648 760 thousand
Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Ampombilava, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 01 Feb 2022 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 04:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:30 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:30 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:45 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:45 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:30 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 03:30 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 05:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Nyambati Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Salale Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:30 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:30 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:30 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:30 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 02:45 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.1
01 Feb 2022 02:45 Maheboug Mauritius  0.1
01 Feb 2022 02:45 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:45 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:45 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 01:45 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
01 Feb 2022 00:15 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1