Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FABIEN-23
in British Indian Ocean Territory
22 May 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FABIEN-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 184 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (16 May 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (British Indian Ocean Territory)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 184 km/h 0.4 m 792 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 184 km/h 0.4 m 792 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 22 May 2023 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 May 2023 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 May 2023 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 May 2023 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 May 2023 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 May 2023 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 May 2023 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 May 2023 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 May 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 16 May 2023 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 16 May 2023 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 May 2023 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 16 May 2023 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 17 May 2023 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 17 May 2023 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 17 May 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 17 May 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 18 May 2023 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 18 May 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 18 May 2023 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 18 May 2023 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 19 May 2023 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 19 May 2023 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 19 May 2023 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 19 May 2023 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 20 May 2023 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 20 May 2023 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 20 May 2023 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 20 May 2023 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 21 May 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 21 May 2023 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 21 May 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 21 May 2023 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 22 May 2023 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 22 May 2023 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 22 May 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

792 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 May 2023 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmReunion2,379 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 May 2023 00:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 May 2023 06:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 May 2023 12:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 May 2023 18:00 219 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 15 May 2023 00:00 213 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 15 May 2023 06:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 May 2023 12:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 May 2023 18:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 16 May 2023 00:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 16 May 2023 06:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 May 2023 12:00 214 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 16 May 2023 18:00 238 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 17 May 2023 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 17 May 2023 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 17 May 2023 12:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 17 May 2023 18:00 216 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 18 May 2023 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 18 May 2023 06:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 18 May 2023 12:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 18 May 2023 18:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 19 May 2023 00:00 95 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 19 May 2023 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 19 May 2023 12:00 241 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 19 May 2023 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 20 May 2023 00:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 20 May 2023 06:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 20 May 2023 12:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 20 May 2023 18:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 21 May 2023 00:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 21 May 2023 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 21 May 2023 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 21 May 2023 18:00 41 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 22 May 2023 00:00 87 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 22 May 2023 06:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 22 May 2023 12:00 119 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Victoria, Seychelles. This height is estimated for 16 May 2023 19:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 May 2023 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mSeychelles12,560 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 May 2023 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 May 2023 19:45 Victoria Seychelles  0.4
16 May 2023 19:45 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.4
16 May 2023 19:45 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.3
16 May 2023 19:30 La Reunion Seychelles  0.3
17 May 2023 07:00 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Saint-Marie Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Sainte-Suzanne Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Saint-Andre Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Bras-Panon Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Saint-Benoit Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 00:30 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
17 May 2023 00:30 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Saint-Philippe Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Sainte-Rose Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Cascades Reunion  0.2
15 May 2023 16:30 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.2
15 May 2023 16:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Saint-Joseph Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Saint-Paul Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Trois Bassins Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 Le Port Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:30 La Possession Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:15 Les Avirons Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:15 Etang Sale Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:15 Saint-Louis Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:15 Saint-Pierre Reunion  0.2
17 May 2023 07:15 Petite Ile Reunion  0.2
23 May 2023 02:00 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.2
17 May 2023 07:15 Saint-Leu Reunion  0.1
22 May 2023 05:45 Saint-Denis Reunion  0.1
22 May 2023 19:45 Port Louis Mauritius  0.1
17 May 2023 06:45 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.1
17 May 2023 06:45 Souillac Mauritius  0.1
17 May 2023 07:15 Choisy Mauritius  0.1
17 May 2023 07:15 Black River Mauritius  0.1