Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

16 May 2024 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (16 May 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	68 km/h	0.3 m	349 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Madagascar	1,385
250-500 mm	Madagascar	19,817
100-250 mm	Madagascar	124,679
50-100 mm	Madagascar	789,511	+
	Madagascar	789,502
	Other countries	08

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 00:00	1004	150 thousand					-	-	Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 16 May 2024 07:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2024 07:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 07:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 07:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 07:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 07:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 09:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 09:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:45	Somanga	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 08:15	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 05:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 11:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 07:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 10:30	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 03:30	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:30	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 04:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 04:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 04:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 04:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 04:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 04:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 08:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 08:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 08:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 09:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 09:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 09:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 10:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 07:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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