Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	104 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 May 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	104 km/h	0.2 m	161 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Kenya	67,046	+
	Kenya	67,043
	Other countries	03
50-100 mm	Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar	74,425	+
	Kenya	37,621
	Tanzania	29,549
	Madagascar	7,254

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 May 2024 00:00	112	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	18 May 2024 06:00	162	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
9	18 May 2024 12:00	329	50 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
10	18 May 2024 18:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	125	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	289	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Kenya, Other countries, Tanzania, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 May 2024 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 May 2024 18:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 18:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 18:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 18:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 18:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 18:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.