Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (20 May 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 0.2 m 295 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 0.4 m 1064 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2024 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 May 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 4 17 May 2024 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 May 2024 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 May 2024 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 May 2024 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 May 2024 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 May 2024 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 19 May 2024 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 19 May 2024 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2024 12:00 382 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2024 18:00 473 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 May 2024 00:00 396 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2024 06:00 420 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 May 2024 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 May 2024 06:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 May 2024 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 May 2024 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 19 May 2024 00:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 19 May 2024 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 19 May 2024 12:00 323 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 19 May 2024 18:00 617 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 May 2024 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 May 2024 04:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 04:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 04:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 04:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 04:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 04:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 05:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 05:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 22:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 22:15 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 22:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 22:15 Ampandrabe Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 22:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 05:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 04:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 22:45 Malindi Kenya  0.2
19 May 2024 22:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.2
19 May 2024 22:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.2
19 May 2024 22:45 Ngomeni Kenya  0.2
20 May 2024 10:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 19:30 Victoria Seychelles  0.2
19 May 2024 19:30 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.2
19 May 2024 22:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 22:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 18:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 18:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 18:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.2
20 May 2024 08:30 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
20 May 2024 08:30 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 22:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 22:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Miperani Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Konde Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 04:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 23:45 Kipini Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 21:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
19 May 2024 21:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
19 May 2024 21:15 Barra Mozambique  0.1
19 May 2024 18:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:15 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 04:30 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 23:30 Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 23:30 Kijipwa Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 23:30 Kijangwani Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 23:30 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
22 May 2024 09:15 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
22 May 2024 09:15 Ambolobozokely Madagascar  0.1
22 May 2024 09:15 Irodo Madagascar  0.1
22 May 2024 09:15 Ambaritsatrana Madagascar  0.1
22 May 2024 09:15 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 21:15 Kitunda Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 21:15 Kiuleula Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 21:15 Kiswa Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Makowe Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Matondoni Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Amu Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Lamu Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Kililana Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Paje Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Mida Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Watamu Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Mkunumbi Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 00:30 Kiongwe Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 20:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 20:15 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 20:15 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 20:15 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:45 Nyambati Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 18:45 Salale Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 00:45 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 18:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 23:00 Rasini Kenya  0.1