Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	126 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (20 May 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	126 km/h	0.2 m	399 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1064 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	294	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	323	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	619	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 May 2024 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 May 2024 04:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 04:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 04:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 04:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 04:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 04:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 23:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 23:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 23:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 23:15	Ampandrabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 23:15	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 09:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 10:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 08:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.2
	20 May 2024 08:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:30	Miperani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:30	Konde	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:30	Kiuyu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 15:45	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 05:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:15	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:15	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 00:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 06:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 06:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:15	Waa	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:15	Mkunguni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:15	Mwandoni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:15	Mombasa	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:15	Mto Panga	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:15	Mtwapa	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 02:15	Kilifi	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 02:15	Takaungu	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:30	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:30	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:30	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 09:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 09:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 09:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.