Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (21 May 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 104 km/h 0.2 m 470 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 0.4 m 1064 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2024 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 May 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 4 17 May 2024 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 May 2024 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 May 2024 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 May 2024 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 May 2024 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 May 2024 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 19 May 2024 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 19 May 2024 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 20 May 2024 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 20 May 2024 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2024 12:00 382 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2024 18:00 473 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 May 2024 00:00 396 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2024 06:00 420 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 May 2024 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 May 2024 06:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 May 2024 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 May 2024 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 19 May 2024 00:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 19 May 2024 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 19 May 2024 12:00 323 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 19 May 2024 18:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 20 May 2024 00:00 399 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 20 May 2024 06:00 1260 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 May 2024 23:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 23:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 23:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 23:00 Ampandrabe Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 23:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 12:30 Victoria Seychelles  0.2
20 May 2024 12:30 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.2
20 May 2024 10:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 10:45 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 23:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 23:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 23:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 23:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
20 May 2024 23:45 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 08:30 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
20 May 2024 08:30 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
21 May 2024 14:45 Kipini Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 19:00 Malindi Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 19:00 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 19:00 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 19:00 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 10:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 09:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 09:45 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 09:45 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 23:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Gulioni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 16:00 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 13:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 23:30 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 15:15 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 15:15 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 15:15 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 15:15 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 15:15 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 15:15 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Donge Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 09:00 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 15:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
20 May 2024 14:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 14:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 14:45 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 14:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 14:45 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 14:45 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
20 May 2024 15:30 Rasini Kenya  0.1