Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

16 May 2024 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (16 May 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.4 m	396 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles	21

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 May 2024 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	14,844
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	139,182	+
	Seychelles	21
	Madagascar	139,160
50-100 mm	Madagascar	990,848

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 May 2024 12:00	817	150 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 16 May 2024 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2024 18:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.4
	16 May 2024 18:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 18:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 18:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 18:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 18:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 13:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 13:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 13:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 18:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 18:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 13:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 13:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 13:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 16:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 13:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 17:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:45	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:45	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:45	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 13:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	16 May 2024 13:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:15	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:15	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:45	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:45	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:45	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 17:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:30	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 13:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:15	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:30	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 12:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:15	Kitambula	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 16:00	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.