Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (16 May 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	76 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 May 2024 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	28,781	+
	Seychelles	21
	Madagascar	28,759

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 16 May 2024 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Somanga	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:15	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 21:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	16 May 2024 18:15	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:15	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 21:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 21:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 21:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:45	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.