Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	126 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 May 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	126 km/h	0.2 m	136 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	21 May 2024 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

705 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Tanzania	85
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Madagascar	201,636	+
	Tanzania	190,361
	Other countries	02
	Madagascar	11,272

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 May 2024 00:00	112	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	18 May 2024 06:00	162	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
9	18 May 2024 12:00	329	50 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
10	18 May 2024 18:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	125	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	230	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	21 May 2024 06:00	266	Few people			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Other countries, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voalavo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 15:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 15:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 21:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.