Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

17 May 2024 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (17 May 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.3 m	214 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Madagascar	3,106
250-500 mm	Madagascar	205,545
100-250 mm	Madagascar	538,925
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar	743,615	+
	Seychelles	83
	Comoros	25,359
	Madagascar	718,162
	Other countries	10

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	1123	750 thousand					-	-	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 23:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 23:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 15:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Vanga	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Majoreni	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Ramisi	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 18:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:30	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:30	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:00	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:00	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 22:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 22:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 22:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 22:45	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 22:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 22:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:30	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:30	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
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