Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 May 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.4 m	21 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	52,442
100-250 mm	Madagascar	570,314
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	640,284	+
	Seychelles	55
	Madagascar	640,228

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	472	620 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 10:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.