Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

18 May 2024 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 May 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	79 km/h	0.2 m	447 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 May 2024 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	83,421
100-250 mm	Comoros, Madagascar	303,307	+
	Comoros	7,080
	Madagascar	296,226
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar	641,645	+
	Seychelles	29
	Comoros	38,314
	Madagascar	603,277
	Other countries	23

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	275	60 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
6	18 May 2024 12:00	1058	390 thousand				-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 16:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 14:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 14:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 14:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 22:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 12:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 12:45	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 16:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 23:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 23:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 23:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 23:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:45	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:45	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:45	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:15	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.