Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (17 May 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	62 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	164,993
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	944,599	+
	Seychelles	61
	Madagascar	944,537
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	335,902	+
	Seychelles	21
	Madagascar	335,737
	Other countries	143

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	441	1.1 million				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Bagamoyo, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 23:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 23:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 23:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 19:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 20:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 23:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 21:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.