Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 May 07:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	72 km/h	0.2 m	196 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles	00	+
50-100 mm	Seychelles	02

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	849	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 07:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 07:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 08:15	Somanga	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 08:15	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 08:15	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 10:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:30	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:30	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:30	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:30	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:30	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 07:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.