Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (18 May 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	83 km/h	0.3 m	211 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Seychelles	00	+

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	748	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 18:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 15:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 15:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 15:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 13:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 15:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 15:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 15:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 12:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:00	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 14:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 14:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 14:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:15	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:15	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:15	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:15	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 14:00	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:30	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:00	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:00	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:00	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:00	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:00	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 13:45	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 16:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 15:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 17:00	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 17:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 17:00	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 17:00	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 17:00	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.