Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-25 in Mexico from 04 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC to 10 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25

in Mexico

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (07 Oct 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	158 km/h	0.3 m	180 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	72 km/h	0.6 m	4425 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2025 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Oct 2025 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2025 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Oct 2025 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Oct 2025 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Oct 2025 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Oct 2025 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Oct 2025 06:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Oct 2025 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Oct 2025 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Oct 2025 00:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Oct 2025 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Oct 2025 12:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

4425 mm

Up to 6.7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2025 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	6,680,077	+
	Mexico	6,680,073
	Other countries	03
50-100 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	11,859,743	+
	Mexico	11,298,966
	Other countries	55
	Guatemala	560,721

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Oct 2025 18:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2025 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	05 Oct 2025 06:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Oct 2025 12:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	05 Oct 2025 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	06 Oct 2025 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	06 Oct 2025 06:00	132	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	06 Oct 2025 12:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Oct 2025 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Oct 2025 00:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Oct 2025 06:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Oct 2025 12:00	557	6.7 million			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Other countries, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in La Verde, Guatemala. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2025 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2025 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	La Verde	Guatemala	0.3
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.3
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.3
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.3
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.3
	07 Oct 2025 16:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 16:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 16:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 14:45	Boqueron	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 14:45	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 14:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 16:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 16:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 16:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	San Jose Rama Blanca	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Sipacate	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Barra de Santiago	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Buenos Aires	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Metalio	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Acajutla	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Los Cobanos	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Acachapa	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	El Nispero	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Hacienda Taquillo	El Salvador	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 14:45	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Barra Madre Vieja	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 14:15	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	La Concepion	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Las Champas	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:15	El Roble	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:15	Cachimba	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Barra de la Gabina	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	La Barrita	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	San Jose	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:15	Arista	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 15:15	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Champerico	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	San Pedro	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Acapan	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Astillero	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	El Martillo	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 14:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Iztapa	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Papaturro	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	El Pumpo	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	La Avellana	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Agua Dulce	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:00	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	Lagarto	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Ocos	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	La Candelaria	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	El Chico	Guatemala	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Woodville	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Bolinas	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Stinson Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Muir Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Kentfield	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Tamalpais Valley	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Mill Valley	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Larkspur	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Almonte	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Green Brae	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Marin City	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Strawberry	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Corte Madera	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Sunset District	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Sausalito	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	San Quentin	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Broadmoor	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Paradise Cay	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Stonestown	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Fort Winfield Scott	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Richmond District	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Daly City	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Tiburon	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	McNears Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Belvedere	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Colma	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Little Osaka	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Fort McDowell	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	San Francisco	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Bayshore	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	South San Francisco	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	North Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Brisbane	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:15	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:15	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:15	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:00	Aguaje	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Bodega Bay	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Dillon Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Brazil Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Hamlet	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Nicks Cove	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 15:30	Lairds Landing	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 13:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 18:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Shelter Cove	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Montara	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Rockaway Beach	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Edgemar	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Pacifica	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Westborough	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Baden	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	San Bruno	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Tanforan	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:30	Millbrae	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 17:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 12:30	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.