Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (07 Oct 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 176 km/h 0.4 m 266 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.6 m 4425 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Oct 2025 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Oct 2025 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Oct 2025 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Oct 2025 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Oct 2025 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Oct 2025 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Oct 2025 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Oct 2025 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Oct 2025 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Oct 2025 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Oct 2025 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Oct 2025 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Oct 2025 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

4425 mm

Up to 7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico933 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala6,984,580
+
Mexico6,977,220 
Other countries04 
Guatemala7,355 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala10,579,091
+
United States05 
Mexico9,980,152 
Other countries20 
Guatemala598,913 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Oct 2025 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Oct 2025 00:00 186 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 05 Oct 2025 06:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Oct 2025 12:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 05 Oct 2025 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 06 Oct 2025 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 06 Oct 2025 06:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 8 06 Oct 2025 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Oct 2025 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Oct 2025 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Oct 2025 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Oct 2025 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Oct 2025 18:00 611 7 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Other countries, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2025 19:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC
    
Level Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2025 19:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.4
07 Oct 2025 22:45 La Choya Mexico  0.3
07 Oct 2025 20:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
07 Oct 2025 22:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
07 Oct 2025 20:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.3
07 Oct 2025 22:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 22:00 Molino Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 22:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Woodville United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Bolinas United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Stinson Beach United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Muir Beach United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Kentfield United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Tamalpais Valley United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Mill Valley United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Larkspur United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Almonte United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Green Brae United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Marin City United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Strawberry United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Corte Madera United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Sunset District United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Sausalito United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 San Quentin United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Broadmoor United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Paradise Cay United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Stonestown United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Fort Winfield Scott United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Richmond District United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Daly City United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Tiburon United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 McNears Beach United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Belvedere United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Colma United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Little Osaka United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Fort McDowell United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 San Francisco United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Bayshore United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 South San Francisco United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 North Beach United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Brisbane United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Rockaway Beach United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Edgemar United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Pacifica United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Westborough United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Baden United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 San Bruno United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Tanforan United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Shelter Cove United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Montara United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Millbrae United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Moss Beach United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Princeton United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 El Granada United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Miramar United States  0.2
07 Oct 2025 23:30 La Verde Guatemala  0.2
07 Oct 2025 23:30 El Tulate Guatemala  0.2
07 Oct 2025 23:30 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.2
07 Oct 2025 23:30 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.2
07 Oct 2025 23:30 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Empalme Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Datilito Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 San Jose Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Mulege Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Ligui Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Tripui Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2025 00:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2025 00:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 19:00 El Barril Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:15 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:15 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Accent Homes Mobile Home Park United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Half Moon Bay United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 El Martillo United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:30 Champerico Guatemala  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Azure Vista United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Mission Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Roseville United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Loma Portal United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 San Diego United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Coronado United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Boal United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Martins Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Tunitas United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:45 San Gregorio United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:45 Pescadero United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 La Jolla United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 The Muirlands United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Easter Cross United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:45 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Acapan Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:30 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:30 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Las Champas Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:30 Cunano Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Signal Hill United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Surfside United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Seal Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Newport Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 San Pedro United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Wilmington United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 22:45 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 22:45 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 22:45 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:45 El Tule Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 La Majada Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Punta United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Faria United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Dulah United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 San Buenaventura United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Ventura United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Hollywood By The Sea United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Channel Islands Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 Oxnard United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Acachapa El Salvador  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 El Nispero El Salvador  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Hacienda Taquillo El Salvador  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Acajutla El Salvador  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:15 Los Cobanos El Salvador  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Burlingame United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 21:30 Hillsborough United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:15 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Serena Park United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Franciscan Village United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Carpinteria United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Rincon United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:45 Shepards United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:45 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 23:45 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Solana Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Sorrento United States  0.1
08 Oct 2025 00:00 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Arguello United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Honda United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Tangair United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Surf United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Narlon United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 20:45 Sudden United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 18:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:30 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Las Flores United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Castellammare United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Santa Monica United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Sawtelle United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Alsace United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 El Segundo United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Clifton United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:15 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
07 Oct 2025 19:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1