Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-25 in Mexico from 04 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC to 10 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25

in Mexico

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (08 Oct 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	158 km/h	0.3 m	186 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	72 km/h	0.6 m	4425 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Oct 2025 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	48

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Oct 2025 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2025 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Oct 2025 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Oct 2025 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Oct 2025 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Oct 2025 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Oct 2025 06:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Oct 2025 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Oct 2025 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Oct 2025 00:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Oct 2025 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Oct 2025 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Oct 2025 18:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Oct 2025 00:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

4425 mm

Up to 9.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Oct 2025 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	9,283,334	+
	Mexico	9,281,700
	Other countries	03
	Guatemala	1,630
50-100 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	12,159,258	+
	Mexico	11,153,534
	Other countries	11
	Guatemala	1,005,713

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Oct 2025 18:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2025 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	05 Oct 2025 06:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Oct 2025 12:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	05 Oct 2025 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	06 Oct 2025 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	06 Oct 2025 06:00	132	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	06 Oct 2025 12:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Oct 2025 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Oct 2025 00:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Oct 2025 06:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Oct 2025 12:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Oct 2025 18:00	266	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Oct 2025 00:00	464	9.3 million			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Other countries, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Oct 2025 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Oct 2025 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.3
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	La Verde	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Woodville	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Bolinas	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Stinson Beach	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Muir Beach	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Kentfield	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Tamalpais Valley	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Mill Valley	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Larkspur	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Almonte	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Green Brae	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Marin City	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Strawberry	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Corte Madera	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Sunset District	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Sausalito	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	San Quentin	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Broadmoor	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Paradise Cay	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Stonestown	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Fort Winfield Scott	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Richmond District	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Daly City	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Tiburon	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	McNears Beach	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Belvedere	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Colma	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Little Osaka	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Fort McDowell	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	San Francisco	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Bayshore	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	South San Francisco	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	North Beach	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Brisbane	United States	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:00	Boqueron	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	Cachimba	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	Arista	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	San Jose Rama Blanca	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Sipacate	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:00	La Concepion	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 05:15	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 05:15	El Nispero	El Salvador	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 05:15	Hacienda Taquillo	El Salvador	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 04:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:30	Barra Madre Vieja	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:30	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	Ocos	Guatemala	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Buenavista	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 03:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	08 Oct 2025 01:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:30	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:30	Lagarto	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 04:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Barra de Santiago	El Salvador	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Buenos Aires	El Salvador	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Metalio	El Salvador	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Acajutla	El Salvador	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Los Cobanos	El Salvador	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Acachapa	El Salvador	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	El Martillo	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:00	Champerico	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	La Barrita	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Acapan	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Barra de la Gabina	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Las Champas	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	San Jose	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Iztapa	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Aguaje	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:45	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Astillero	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	San Pedro	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:15	Copala	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:15	Marquelia	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	El Chico	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 04:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:30	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:30	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 00:00	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:30	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 03:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Shelter Cove	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Moss Beach	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Montara	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Rockaway Beach	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Edgemar	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Princeton	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	El Granada	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Pacifica	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Westborough	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Miramar	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Baden	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	San Bruno	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Tanforan	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 06:00	Millbrae	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:45	La Candelaria	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:45	El Pumpo	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:45	La Avellana	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:45	Agua Dulce	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 04:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 01:15	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Punta	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Faria	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Dulah	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	San Buenaventura	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Ventura	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Hollywood By The Sea	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Channel Islands Beach	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:00	Oxnard	United States	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 04:15	Tierra Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:15	Papaturro	Guatemala	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 04:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 04:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:45	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 05:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	08 Oct 2025 02:30	Ayutla	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.