Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for DOLPHIN-26 in Marshall Islands, Japan, China from 27 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC to 09 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for DOLPHIN-26

in Marshall Islands, Japan, China

07 Aug 2026 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DOLPHIN-26 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	, China, Japan, Taiwan
Exposed population	1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (01 Aug 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Marshall Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	194 km/h	n.a.	909 mm	2.5
HWRF Overall	259 km/h	n.a.	1863 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

259 km/h

Up to 1.9 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 3	Japan	9,364
CAT. 2	China, Japan	24,784	+
	China	2,613
	Japan	22,171
CAT. 1	China, Japan	1,908,861	+
	Other countries	6,086
	China	707,579
	Japan	1,195,195
Tropical Storm	China, Japan, Taiwan	85,607,748	+
	Other countries	81,448
	China	84,398,709
	Japan	414,886
	Taiwan	712,702

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	27 Jul 2026 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Jul 2026 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	27 Jul 2026 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	27 Jul 2026 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Jul 2026 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	28 Jul 2026 06:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	28 Jul 2026 12:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	28 Jul 2026 18:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	29 Jul 2026 00:00	227	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	29 Jul 2026 06:00	223	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	29 Jul 2026 12:00	241	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	29 Jul 2026 18:00	256	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	30 Jul 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	30 Jul 2026 06:00	248	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	30 Jul 2026 12:00	245	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	30 Jul 2026 18:00	259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	31 Jul 2026 00:00	241	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	31 Jul 2026 06:00	245	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	31 Jul 2026 12:00	230	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	31 Jul 2026 18:00	227	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	01 Aug 2026 00:00	234	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	01 Aug 2026 06:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	01 Aug 2026 12:00	216	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
24	01 Aug 2026 18:00	230	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
25	02 Aug 2026 00:00	223	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
26	02 Aug 2026 06:00	212	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
27	02 Aug 2026 12:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
28	02 Aug 2026 18:00	184	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	03 Aug 2026 00:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	03 Aug 2026 06:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	03 Aug 2026 12:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	03 Aug 2026 18:00	176	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
33	04 Aug 2026 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
34	04 Aug 2026 06:00	198	2 thousand		-		-	-	-	Japan
35	04 Aug 2026 12:00	191	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan
36	04 Aug 2026 18:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
37	05 Aug 2026 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
38	05 Aug 2026 06:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	05 Aug 2026 12:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	05 Aug 2026 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	06 Aug 2026 00:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
42	06 Aug 2026 06:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
43	06 Aug 2026 12:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
44	06 Aug 2026 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
45	07 Aug 2026 00:00	166	40 thousand				-	-	-	Japan
46	07 Aug 2026 06:00	194	1.9 million					-	-	Other countries, China, Japan, Taiwan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
more than 1000 mm	China, Japan	64,287	+
	China	31,003
	Japan	33,283
750-1000 mm	China, Japan, Taiwan	690,807	+
	China	387,810
	Japan	299,393
	Taiwan	3,603
500-750 mm	China, Japan, Taiwan	4,445,598	+
	China	3,131,642
	Other countries	11,522
	Japan	1,059,557
	Taiwan	242,876
250-500 mm	China, Japan, Taiwan	19,192,731	+
	China	17,459,621
	Other countries	22,246
	Japan	79,174
	Taiwan	1,631,689
100-250 mm	China, Japan, Taiwan	67,111,770	+
	China	60,042,505
	Other countries	24,236
	Japan	147,045
	Taiwan	6,897,983
50-100 mm	China, Japan, Taiwan	26,717,937	+
	China	22,993,258
	Other countries	20,001
	Japan	5,423
	Taiwan	3,699,254

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Jul 2026 00:00	288	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Jul 2026 06:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	27 Jul 2026 12:00	111	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	27 Jul 2026 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Jul 2026 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	28 Jul 2026 06:00	187	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	28 Jul 2026 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	28 Jul 2026 18:00	283	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	29 Jul 2026 00:00	343	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	29 Jul 2026 06:00	244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	29 Jul 2026 12:00	249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	29 Jul 2026 18:00	300	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	30 Jul 2026 00:00	293	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	30 Jul 2026 06:00	306	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	30 Jul 2026 12:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	30 Jul 2026 18:00	370	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	31 Jul 2026 00:00	314	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	31 Jul 2026 06:00	305	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	31 Jul 2026 12:00	283	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	31 Jul 2026 18:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	01 Aug 2026 00:00	268	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	01 Aug 2026 06:00	240	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	01 Aug 2026 12:00	225	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	01 Aug 2026 18:00	250	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	02 Aug 2026 00:00	214	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	02 Aug 2026 06:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	02 Aug 2026 12:00	147	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	02 Aug 2026 18:00	134	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	03 Aug 2026 00:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	03 Aug 2026 06:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	03 Aug 2026 12:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	03 Aug 2026 18:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	04 Aug 2026 00:00	124	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	04 Aug 2026 06:00	172	Few people			-	-	-	-	Japan
35	04 Aug 2026 12:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	04 Aug 2026 18:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	05 Aug 2026 00:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	05 Aug 2026 06:00	138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	05 Aug 2026 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	05 Aug 2026 18:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	06 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	06 Aug 2026 06:00	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	06 Aug 2026 12:00	95	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	06 Aug 2026 18:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
45	07 Aug 2026 00:00	104	Few people			-	-	-	-	Japan
46	07 Aug 2026 06:00	909	37.1 million					-	-	China, Other countries, Japan, Taiwan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Oki, Japan. This height is estimated for 01 Aug 2026 07:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
0.25 - 0.5 m	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam	72,184	+
	Northern Mariana Islands	21,415
	Guam	50,768

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Aug 2026 07:30	Oki	Japan	0.3
	01 Aug 2026 07:30	Hyogidaira	Japan	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Lockwood Terrace	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Agat	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Camp Bright	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Umatac	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Santa Rita	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Merizo	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Piti	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Asan	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Inarajan	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Hagatna	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Sinajana	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Talofofo	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Mongmong	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Ylig	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Yona	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Tamuning	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Barrigada	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Camp Quezon	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Harmon Village	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Oceanview	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Dededo	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	South Acres	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Asbeco	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Adacao	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Ipapao	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Perez Acres	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Spring Hill Subdivision	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Gayinero	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Asatdas	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 01:45	Lupog	Guam	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Afetna	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Susupi	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Laolao	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Garapan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Mutcho	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Chalan Kanoa	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Aslito	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Tanapag	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Saipan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	San Roque	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 03:15	Kagman	Northern Mariana Islands	0.3
	30 Jul 2026 13:15	Omura	Japan	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 13:15	Ogigaura	Japan	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 13:15	Sakaiura	Japan	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 02:45	Ronkiti	Micronesia	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 02:45	Palikir	Micronesia	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 02:45	Kolonia	Micronesia	0.2
	29 Jul 2026 01:45	Wotje	Marshall Islands	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 02:00	Lot	Micronesia	0.2
	30 Jul 2026 02:00	Metalanim	Micronesia	0.2
	29 Jul 2026 17:15	Kuma	Kiribati	0.2
	31 Jul 2026 07:30	Potts Junction	Guam	0.2
	31 Jul 2026 07:30	Upi	Guam	0.2
	01 Aug 2026 12:45	Sunharon Roads	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	29 Jul 2026 05:45	Kaven	Marshall Islands	0.2
	31 Jul 2026 19:15	Songsong	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	31 Jul 2026 19:15	Teteto	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	31 Jul 2026 19:15	Rota	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	31 Jul 2026 19:15	Sinapalo	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	02 Aug 2026 00:30	Shomushon	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	02 Aug 2026 00:30	Marasu	Northern Mariana Islands	0.2
	02 Aug 2026 06:00	Rawannawi	Kiribati	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.