Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	144 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (01 Sep 23:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	144 km/h	0.8 m	321 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Sep 2026 12:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

376 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	123,445	+
	Mexico	117,815
	United States	5,630

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	281	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	308	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Sep 2026 12:00	374	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2026 23:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Sep 2026 23:45	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.8
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.6
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.6
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	La Choya	Mexico	0.5
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.5
	01 Sep 2026 15:15	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 15:15	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 15:15	Ensenada	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.4
	02 Sep 2026 00:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	Molino	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 00:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:45	Waieli	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:45	Mana	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:45	Kalalau	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:45	Haena	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:45	Wainiha	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 23:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 15:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Umipaa	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Kaunakakai	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Moku	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Kamalo	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Kaluaaha	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Keomuku	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Ualapue	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:30	Pukoo	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 22:45	Hoolehua	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 22:45	Kualapuu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 22:45	Kalaupapa	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 19:15	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 19:15	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 19:15	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 22:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kaanapali	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Puukolii	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Lahaina	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Crater Village	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Honokahua	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Mahinahina Camp	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kapalua	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Olowalu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 21:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 15:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 15:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Hanalei	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Princeville	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kilauea	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kealia	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Moloaa	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kapaa	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Anahola	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kumukumu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 17:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Waialua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Puunene	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Village Eight	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Paia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Haiku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Pauwela	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Ulumalu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Kailua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Wailua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 00:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Marconi	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Laie	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Hauula	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Waikane	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Kahana	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Kahaluu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Ahuimanu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Heeia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Kaneohe	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:15	Kaneohe Station	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:15	Nahiku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 20:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:15	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kahakuloa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:30	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:30	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 20:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Halawa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:15	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:15	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:15	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 23:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Waimea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Waialee	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Halawa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Halawa Heights	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Aliamanu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Fort Shafter	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Maunawili	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Kailua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Lanikai	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:30	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:30	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:30	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 20:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Mokuleia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Dillingham Ranch	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Waialua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Barbers Point Housing	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Ewa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Honouliuli	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Ewa Gentry	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Village Park	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Waipahu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Ewa Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Waipio	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Iroquois Point	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Pearl City	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Hickam Housing	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Waimalu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Aiea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Honolulu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 20:15	Waihee	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 20:15	Wailuku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 20:15	Kahului	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 15:45	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 22:15	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 22:15	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Halena	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Wahilauhue	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Kepuhi	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Mauna Loa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Maalaea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Kihei	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Keawakapu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Makena	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Keoneoio	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Ulupalakua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Mahaiula	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Kaupulehu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Kiholo	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Weliweli	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Anaehoomalu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 16:45	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:30	Moomomi	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:30	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 18:45	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 22:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 22:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 22:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 22:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 19:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 15:00	Napari	Kiribati	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 15:00	Weston Point	Kiribati	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 21:15	Puako	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 21:15	Waikoloa Village	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 21:15	Kawaihae	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 17:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.