Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	130 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (02 Sep 22:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	130 km/h	0.5 m	186 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Sep 2026 12:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Sep 2026 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Sep 2026 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

376 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	34,629	+
	Mexico	23,184
	United States	11,445

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	281	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	308	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Sep 2026 12:00	321	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Sep 2026 00:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Sep 2026 12:00	452	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 02 Sep 2026 22:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Sep 2026 22:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.5
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.4
	02 Sep 2026 15:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.4
	02 Sep 2026 14:15	La Choya	Mexico	0.4
	02 Sep 2026 14:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.4
	02 Sep 2026 20:45	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 20:45	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 20:45	Ensenada	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:45	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:15	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:15	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:30	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Kamalo	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Keomuku	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Ualapue	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Kaanapali	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Puukolii	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Lahaina	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Crater Village	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Honokahua	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Mahinahina Camp	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Kapalua	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Olowalu	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:45	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 15:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:15	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:15	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Erendria	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 20:15	El Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 22:45	Kahakuloa	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Maalaea	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Waihee	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Hyashi Village	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Wailuku	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Kahului	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Kihei	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Puunene	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Keawakapu	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Village Eight	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Makena	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Keoneoio	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Ulupalakua	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Paia	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Haiku	United States	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Waimea	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Waialee	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Marconi	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Laie	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Hauula	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:00	Kahana	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 20:00	Moku	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 20:00	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 20:00	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 20:00	Waialua	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 20:45	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:30	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Kualapuu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Kalaupapa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 23:00	Halawa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:15	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:45	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:30	Napari	Kiribati	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 12:30	Weston Point	Kiribati	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 20:45	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:30	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:45	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Halawa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Halawa Heights	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Aliamanu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Waikane	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Fort Shafter	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Kahaluu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Ahuimanu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Heeia	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Kaneohe	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Maunawili	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Kaneohe Station	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Kailua	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Lanikai	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Pauwela	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Ulumalu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Kailua	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Wailua	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Nahiku	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Waipio	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Kukuihaele	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:00	Honokaa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Halena	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Wahilauhue	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Kepuhi	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Mauna Loa	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Moomomi	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 14:30	Hoolehua	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Mahaiula	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Kaupulehu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Kiholo	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Weliweli	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:30	Anaehoomalu	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Puako	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Waikoloa Village	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:15	Kawaihae	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 17:45	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Waieli	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Mana	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Kalalau	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Haena	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 22:00	Wainiha	United States	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:45	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 18:30	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 16:15	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Sep 2026 19:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.