Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (28 Aug 06:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	79 km/h	0.8 m	270 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	17
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	74,275	+
	Mexico	73,542
	United States	733

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	369	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2026 06:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Aug 2026 06:45	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.8
	28 Aug 2026 06:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.7
	28 Aug 2026 06:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.6
	28 Aug 2026 06:15	La Choya	Mexico	0.5
	28 Aug 2026 06:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.5
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Ensenada	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2026 05:30	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 06:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 03:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 04:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 04:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 08:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 05:15	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 05:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 04:45	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 09:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 04:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 04:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:45	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 08:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Waimea	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Waialee	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Marconi	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Laie	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Hauula	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 07:45	Kahana	United States	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:30	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 05:15	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 05:15	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:30	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:15	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:00	La Mision	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:15	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:30	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:45	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:45	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 02:15	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:15	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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