Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	86 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (29 Aug 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	86 km/h	0.6 m	291 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	755,057	+
	Mexico	751,145
	United States	3,912

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	402	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.6
	29 Aug 2026 12:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2026 12:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2026 12:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 12:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 09:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 02:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 02:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	Molino	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 01:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 11:00	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 11:00	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 11:00	Ensenada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 00:15	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 02:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 11:00	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 01:30	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:30	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 08:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 02:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 10:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 10:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 10:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 10:15	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 02:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 02:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Waimea	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Waialee	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Marconi	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Laie	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Hauula	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kahana	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 02:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:30	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:00	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:00	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:30	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 10:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:00	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:15	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:45	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 08:45	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kalaupapa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Moku	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kamalo	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Ualapue	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Waialua	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 01:15	Halawa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Keomuku	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:30	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:30	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:30	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Halena	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Wahilauhue	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Kepuhi	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Mauna Loa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Moomomi	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Hoolehua	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Kualapuu	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 07:15	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.