Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	115 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.0 m (29 Aug 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	115 km/h	1.0 m	415 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	45,292	+
	Mexico	38,979
	United States	6,312

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	425	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2026 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Aug 2026 14:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	1.0
	29 Aug 2026 13:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.9
	29 Aug 2026 13:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.8
	29 Aug 2026 13:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.7
	29 Aug 2026 13:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.7
	29 Aug 2026 14:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 13:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 13:45	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 13:45	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2026 23:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 15:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 15:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 13:45	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 15:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 15:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 13:15	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 13:15	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 13:15	Ensenada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 18:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 18:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 18:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:30	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:30	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:45	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Moku	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Kamalo	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Keomuku	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Ualapue	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 22:30	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 23:45	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Waimea	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Waialee	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Marconi	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Laie	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Hauula	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:45	Kahana	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 16:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 17:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.