Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	101 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (30 Aug 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	101 km/h	0.9 m	252 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	28,828	+
	Mexico	28,820
	United States	07

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2026 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Aug 2026 06:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.9
	30 Aug 2026 06:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.8
	30 Aug 2026 05:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.7
	30 Aug 2026 05:45	La Choya	Mexico	0.7
	30 Aug 2026 05:45	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.7
	30 Aug 2026 06:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 04:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 07:00	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 07:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 09:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 09:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 08:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 07:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 02:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:15	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 06:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 08:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 01:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 03:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 10:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 04:30	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 01:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 01:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 01:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Moku	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Kamalo	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Keomuku	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Ualapue	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 03:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 03:45	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 03:45	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 03:45	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 01:15	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 05:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Puunene	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Village Eight	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Paia	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Haiku	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Pauwela	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Ulumalu	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Kailua	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Wailua	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Halena	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Wahilauhue	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Kepuhi	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Mauna Loa	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Moomomi	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Hoolehua	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Kualapuu	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 11:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 07:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Waieli	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Mana	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Kalalau	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Haena	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 08:00	Wainiha	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 01:00	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 09:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 04:30	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 03:30	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 00:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2026 10:45	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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