Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (31 Aug 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	158 km/h	0.6 m	193 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	184	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

376 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States	26
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	196,219	+
	Mexico	192,779
	United States	3,440

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	542	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.6
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.6
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.5
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.5
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.5
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 04:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 11:45	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 11:45	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 11:45	Ensenada	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 01:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 02:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 11:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 10:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 08:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 08:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 08:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 08:45	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 08:45	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 08:45	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Erendria	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 07:00	Kalalau	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 07:00	Haena	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 07:00	Wainiha	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 07:00	Hanalei	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 07:00	Princeville	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 07:00	Kilauea	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 03:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 04:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:45	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Moku	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Kamalo	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Keomuku	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Ualapue	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 09:30	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 11:45	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 04:15	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:15	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:15	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Maalaea	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Kihei	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Keawakapu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Makena	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Keoneoio	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Ulupalakua	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Waialua	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Kaanapali	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Puukolii	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Lahaina	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Crater Village	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:15	Honokahua	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Olowalu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Waihee	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Hyashi Village	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Wailuku	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Kahului	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Puunene	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Village Eight	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Paia	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 07:30	Haiku	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 04:30	La Mision	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Kalaupapa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:30	Halawa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:30	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:15	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 00:45	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 01:30	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:15	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:15	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:15	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:15	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 08:30	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.