Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

04 Sep 2026 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (07 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	126 km/h	0.4 m	358 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	176 km/h	0.4 m	507 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	22

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	28 Aug 2026 00:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	28 Aug 2026 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Aug 2026 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	29 Aug 2026 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	29 Aug 2026 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	29 Aug 2026 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	30 Aug 2026 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	30 Aug 2026 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	30 Aug 2026 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	30 Aug 2026 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	31 Aug 2026 00:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	31 Aug 2026 06:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	31 Aug 2026 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	31 Aug 2026 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	01 Sep 2026 00:00	162	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
19	01 Sep 2026 06:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	01 Sep 2026 12:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	01 Sep 2026 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	02 Sep 2026 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	02 Sep 2026 06:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	02 Sep 2026 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	02 Sep 2026 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	03 Sep 2026 00:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	03 Sep 2026 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	03 Sep 2026 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	03 Sep 2026 18:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	04 Sep 2026 00:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	04 Sep 2026 06:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	04 Sep 2026 12:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	04 Sep 2026 18:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

507 mm

Up to 2.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Mexico	162
100-250 mm	Mexico	2,822,829
50-100 mm	Mexico	12,018,399	+
	Mexico	12,018,381
	Other countries	17

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 18:00	153	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	28 Aug 2026 00:00	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Aug 2026 18:00	142	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	29 Aug 2026 06:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	29 Aug 2026 12:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	29 Aug 2026 18:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	30 Aug 2026 00:00	246	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	30 Aug 2026 06:00	153	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
12	30 Aug 2026 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	30 Aug 2026 18:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	31 Aug 2026 00:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	31 Aug 2026 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	31 Aug 2026 12:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	31 Aug 2026 18:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	01 Sep 2026 00:00	177	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
19	01 Sep 2026 06:00	215	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	01 Sep 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	01 Sep 2026 18:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	02 Sep 2026 00:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	02 Sep 2026 06:00	238	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	02 Sep 2026 12:00	141	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	02 Sep 2026 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	03 Sep 2026 00:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	03 Sep 2026 06:00	156	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	03 Sep 2026 12:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	03 Sep 2026 18:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	04 Sep 2026 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	04 Sep 2026 06:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	04 Sep 2026 12:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	04 Sep 2026 18:00	358	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Tecomate, Mexico. This height is estimated for 07 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
0.5 - 1.0 m	Mexico	8,591
0.25 - 0.5 m	Mexico	36,134	+
	Mexico	36,128
	Other countries	06

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Sep 2026 18:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	07 Sep 2026 18:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 02:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 17:00	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2026 17:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	07 Sep 2026 17:45	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.3
	07 Sep 2026 18:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.3
	07 Sep 2026 06:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	06 Sep 2026 19:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 05:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 05:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 05:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.3
	07 Sep 2026 18:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.3
	03 Sep 2026 02:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 02:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 02:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	05 Sep 2026 22:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 05:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.3
	02 Sep 2026 05:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.3
	06 Sep 2026 05:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.3
	05 Sep 2026 05:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2026 09:15	La Playa	Mexico	0.3
	05 Sep 2026 05:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 16:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 16:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 19:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 04:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 04:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 04:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 03:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 03:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	06 Sep 2026 00:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 06:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 06:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 02:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 02:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 05:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 02:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	05 Sep 2026 05:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 03:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 03:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 05:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 05:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	05 Sep 2026 05:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	05 Sep 2026 05:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 05:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 14:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 04:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 05:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 02:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	07 Sep 2026 05:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 12:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 15:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 05:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 05:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 16:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 04:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 05:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 03:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 14:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 14:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 05:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 02:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 02:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 02:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	03 Sep 2026 02:00	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	03 Sep 2026 02:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Sep 2026 01:30	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	03 Sep 2026 01:30	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 03:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 02:45	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 02:45	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 02:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2026 05:00	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 15:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 02:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 02:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 05:30	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 05:30	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 05:30	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Sep 2026 15:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 03:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2026 16:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 01:30	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 05:30	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 05:30	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 05:30	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2026 01:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 04:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 02:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 01:45	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2026 16:45	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 03:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2026 01:15	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	06 Sep 2026 16:30	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 05:15	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 05:15	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 05:15	Maruata	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:30	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 02:30	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.