Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

06 Sep 2026 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	230 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	94 km/h	n.a.	92 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	230 km/h	n.a.	613 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Sep 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	28 Aug 2026 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Aug 2026 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	29 Aug 2026 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	29 Aug 2026 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	30 Aug 2026 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	30 Aug 2026 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	30 Aug 2026 12:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	30 Aug 2026 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	31 Aug 2026 00:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	31 Aug 2026 06:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	31 Aug 2026 12:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	31 Aug 2026 18:00	202	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	01 Sep 2026 00:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	01 Sep 2026 06:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	01 Sep 2026 12:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	01 Sep 2026 18:00	202	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	02 Sep 2026 00:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	02 Sep 2026 06:00	230	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	02 Sep 2026 12:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	02 Sep 2026 18:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	03 Sep 2026 00:00	202	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	03 Sep 2026 06:00	184	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	03 Sep 2026 12:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	03 Sep 2026 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	04 Sep 2026 00:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	04 Sep 2026 06:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	04 Sep 2026 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	04 Sep 2026 18:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	05 Sep 2026 00:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	05 Sep 2026 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	05 Sep 2026 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	05 Sep 2026 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	06 Sep 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	06 Sep 2026 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

613 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 06 Sep 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	27 Aug 2026 18:00	491	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	28 Aug 2026 00:00	334	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 06:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	286	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Aug 2026 18:00	249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	29 Aug 2026 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	29 Aug 2026 12:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	29 Aug 2026 18:00	230	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	30 Aug 2026 00:00	118	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	30 Aug 2026 06:00	96	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	30 Aug 2026 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	30 Aug 2026 18:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	31 Aug 2026 00:00	153	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	31 Aug 2026 06:00	185	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	31 Aug 2026 12:00	187	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	31 Aug 2026 18:00	216	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	01 Sep 2026 00:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	01 Sep 2026 06:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	01 Sep 2026 12:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	01 Sep 2026 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	02 Sep 2026 00:00	147	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	02 Sep 2026 06:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	02 Sep 2026 12:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	02 Sep 2026 18:00	107	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	03 Sep 2026 00:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	03 Sep 2026 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	03 Sep 2026 12:00	84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	03 Sep 2026 18:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	04 Sep 2026 00:00	95	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	04 Sep 2026 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	04 Sep 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	04 Sep 2026 18:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	05 Sep 2026 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	05 Sep 2026 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	05 Sep 2026 12:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	05 Sep 2026 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	06 Sep 2026 00:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	06 Sep 2026 06:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Sep 2026 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

No content available

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.