Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.3 m (22 Jan 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 1.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique1,082,574
+
Madagascar282,969 
Mozambique799,605 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 14 23 Jan 2021 00:00 126 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 15 23 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar12 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa2,532,718
+
Mozambique576,859 
Madagascar1,116,323 
Zimbabwe316,613 
South Africa522,923 
100-250 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland32,814,131
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo3,031 
Tanzania477,324 
Zambia967,837 
Malawi2,809,512 
Mozambique10,776,987 
Madagascar3,844,002 
Zimbabwe8,360,344 
Mauritius844,325 
Reunion351,915 
South Africa3,287,637 
Swaziland1,091,217 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland45,111,144
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo4,994 
Tanzania4,386,691 
Zambia2,712,485 
Malawi13,915,060 
Mozambique8,181,022 
Comoros423,503 
Madagascar12,568,633 
Mayotte217,295 
Zimbabwe825,699 
Mauritius280,988 
Reunion251,490 
South Africa1,014,878 
Swaziland328,406 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 390 80 thousand
- - - Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 280 2 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 299 40 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 504 140 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 665 710 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 360 400 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 492 390 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 232 50 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
Blue 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 238 260 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Madagascar
Blue 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 171 170 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 14 23 Jan 2021 00:00 162 30 thousand
- - - - Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 15 23 Jan 2021 12:00 250 8.4 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mMozambique66,267 
1.0 - 2.0 mMozambique4,504 
0.5 - 1.0 mMadagascar, Mozambique34,614
+
Madagascar18,580 
Mozambique16,034 
0.25 - 0.5 mMadagascar, Mozambique285,322
+
Madagascar123,936 
Mozambique161,385 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC