Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (23 Jan 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique934,470
+
Madagascar324,411 
Mozambique610,059 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 26 23 Jan 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 23 Jan 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 47.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar23,253 
250-500 mmZambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa1,257,717
+
Zambia3,784 
Mozambique164,792 
Madagascar917,068 
South Africa172,073 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland45,896,353
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo3,560 
Tanzania5,564,346 
Zambia2,750,823 
Malawi5,374,549 
Mozambique10,652,482 
Madagascar11,144,337 
Zimbabwe7,289,706 
South Africa2,916,483 
Swaziland200,067 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Seychelles, Mauritius, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland43,176,854
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo6,905 
Tanzania2,659,301 
Zambia1,146,022 
Seychelles47 
Malawi12,002,919 
Mauritius295 
Mozambique13,223,855 
Madagascar8,553,618 
Comoros41,953 
Mayotte217,300 
Zimbabwe2,267,158 
Reunion839,294 
South Africa1,155,871 
Swaziland1,062,316 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 160 70 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 138 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 102 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 80 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 26 23 Jan 2021 12:00 67 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 27 23 Jan 2021 18:00 259 2.8 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
2.0 - 3.0 mMozambique17,039 
1.0 - 2.0 mMozambique53,732 
0.5 - 1.0 mMozambique33,873 
0.25 - 0.5 mMadagascar, Mozambique249,977
+
Madagascar79,143 
Mozambique170,834 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC