Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (23 Jan 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 122 km/h 2.4 m 171 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique849,072 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

907 mm

Up to 9.1 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Africa12,917 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland9,061,883
+
Tanzania1,080 
Malawi20,944 
Madagascar48,283 
Mozambique4,754,359 
Zimbabwe1,641,188 
South Africa2,522,013 
Swaziland74,016 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland8,416,377
+
Tanzania63,558 
Zambia37,129 
Malawi188,974 
Comoros1,268 
Madagascar905,826 
Mozambique3,304,719 
Zimbabwe1,644,137 
Reunion6,548 
South Africa1,313,932 
Swaziland950,286 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 390 80 thousand
- - - Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 280 2 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 299 40 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 504 140 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 665 710 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 360 400 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 492 390 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 232 50 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
Blue 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 238 260 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Madagascar
Blue 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 371 9.1 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC