Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 Jan 02:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 76 km/h 0.2 m 390 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique, Madagascar105,908
+
Madagascar2,966 
Mozambique102,942 
100-250 mmMalawi, Tanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe914,400
+
Tanzania3,139 
Malawi25,702 
Madagascar92,679 
Mozambique608,850 
Zimbabwe184,030 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa7,950,104
+
Tanzania182,116 
Malawi271,567 
Zambia29,645 
Madagascar1,449,172 
Mozambique2,488,175 
Zimbabwe2,988,827 
South Africa540,602 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 542 1 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC