Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
18 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (19 Jan 16:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 0.3 m 191 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar139 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar278,013 
100-250 mmTanzania, Madagascar, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa3,361,515
+
Tanzania28,329 
Zambia02 
Mozambique122,319 
Madagascar2,163,021 
Zimbabwe1,047,819 
South Africa25 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa22,028,209
+
Tanzania1,934,739 
Zambia981,218 
Malawi6,787,601 
Mozambique5,514,184 
Madagascar3,373,034 
Zimbabwe3,302,671 
South Africa134,762 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 467 3.6 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC