Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
04 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Cuba
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (07 Jul 00:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.9 m 297 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 490 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba494,351
+
United States468,899 
Cuba25,452 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 7 03 Jul 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 9 04 Jul 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 10 04 Jul 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCuba, Jamaica20,614
+
Cuba13,078 
Jamaica7,536 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Jamaica, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela4,336,543
+
United States1,898,747 
Cuba775,313 
Jamaica1,638,379 
El Salvador2,743 
Colombia225 
Costa Rica47 
Venezuela21,087 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama10,062,270
+
United States5,764,887 
Cuba1,639,549 
Jamaica618,846 
Haiti69,588 
Honduras329,525 
El Salvador1,394,374 
Nicaragua35,299 
Colombia9,527 
Costa Rica156,682 
Venezuela43,079 
Panama909 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 171 Few people
- - - - Venezuela, Panama
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 155 60 thousand
- - - - Venezuela
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 107 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada
Blue 7 03 Jul 2021 00:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 03 Jul 2021 12:00 136 -
- - - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 9 04 Jul 2021 00:00 171 150 thousand
- - - - Haiti, Nicaragua, Panama
Blue 10 04 Jul 2021 12:00 303 4.4 million
- - - United States, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC