Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
05 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (07 Jul 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 520 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados519,767
+
United States1,472 
Haiti43,597 
Guadeloupe331 
Dominica4,586 
Martinique9,571 
Saint Lucia175,993 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
GREEN 7 03 Jul 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 9 04 Jul 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 10 04 Jul 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Jul 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama, Venezuela71,676
+
Cuba13,891 
Haiti19,225 
Jamaica15,772 
Venezuela20,351 
Panama2,435 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Honduras, Martinique, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Nicaragua, Grenada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama14,847,657
+
United States6,130,125 
Cuba1,144,427 
Haiti538,384 
Dominican Republic959,036 
Jamaica1,870,660 
Guatemala199,701 
Guadeloupe765 
Honduras82,184 
Dominica10,734 
Martinique96,674 
Nicaragua35,012 
El Salvador117,262 
Saint Lucia77,399 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines23,013 
Barbados17,392 
Grenada41,980 
Venezuela1,026,802 
Trinidad and Tobago8,827 
Colombia107,897 
Costa Rica703,217 
Panama1,656,156 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Martinique, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana57,945,021
+
United States15,976,005 
Bahamas23,065 
Cuba4,126,348 
Haiti1,339,382 
Cayman Islands1,976 
Dominican Republic4,226,400 
Jamaica429,892 
Puerto Rico58,194 
Mexico200 
Belize72,846 
Guatemala1,751,313 
Guadeloupe65,420 
Honduras2,779,055 
Dominica21,324 
Martinique277,565 
Nicaragua4,529,001 
El Salvador3,809,711 
Saint Lucia107,599 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines86,448 
Barbados266,822 
Grenada64,844 
Venezuela7,796,649 
Trinidad and Tobago1,158,983 
Colombia3,416,984 
Costa Rica3,535,283 
Panama2,015,603 
Guyana8,096 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 171 Few people
- - - - Venezuela, Panama
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Jul 2021 00:00 155 60 thousand
- - - - Venezuela
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 12:00 107 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada
Blue 7 03 Jul 2021 00:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 03 Jul 2021 12:00 136 -
- - - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 9 04 Jul 2021 00:00 171 150 thousand
- - - - Haiti, Nicaragua, Panama
Blue 10 04 Jul 2021 12:00 297 1.5 million
- - - Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Colombia
Blue 11 05 Jul 2021 00:00 285 580 thousand
- - - United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States1,336 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Cuba, Venezuela220,874
+
United States201,760 
Cuba11,059 
Venezuela8,054 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Haiti, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama489,239
+
United States199,946 
Cuba16,908 
Mexico13,501 
Belize20,125 
Haiti7,407 
Nicaragua28,066 
Colombia118,253 
Venezuela76,426 
Trinidad and Tobago8,077 
Panama524 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC