Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
05 Jul 2021 06 UTC
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Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Cuba
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (07 Jul 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.9 m 77 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 3.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba3,238,248
+
United States2,216,539 
Cuba1,021,708 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba2,359,413
+
United States1,602,228 
Cuba757,184 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Guyana, Venezuela9,769,699
+
United States5,970,111 
Cuba2,102,107 
Guatemala109,782 
Honduras1,260,683 
El Salvador91,629 
Nicaragua61,483 
Colombia165,554 
Guyana8,345 
Venezuela01 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Honduras, Venezuela
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 52 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 89 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 78 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 117 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Panama
Blue 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 98 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 223 2.4 million
- - - - United States, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Guyana, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC