Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
30 Jun 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Dominican Republic, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (30 Jun 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.6 m 332 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jun 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormDominican Republic, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados88,856
+
Dominican Republic15,278 
Martinique17,432 
Saint Lucia31,730 
Barbados24,415 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jun 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmVenezuela4,111 
100-250 mmSaint Lucia, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela, Colombia952,060
+
Saint Lucia31,650 
Colombia13,834 
Costa Rica2,999 
Venezuela852,871 
Panama50,704 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Martinique, Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama4,885,592
+
United States8,816 
Cuba676 
Dominican Republic359,495 
Haiti565 
Puerto Rico24,094 
Guadeloupe1,162 
Dominica10,510 
Guatemala9,330 
Martinique278,238 
Honduras29,429 
Saint Lucia153,348 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines98,270 
Barbados263,950 
Colombia566,820 
Costa Rica449,760 
Venezuela460,180 
Panama2,170,943 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 359 960 thousand
- - - United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Guatemala, Martinique, Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Jun 2021 12:00 UTC