Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
05 Jul 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Cuba
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Jul 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.6 m 148 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 2.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba2,719,593
+
United States2,336,995 
Cuba382,598 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba2,331,790
+
United States1,650,181 
Cuba681,609 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana8,655,930
+
United States6,917,621 
Cuba467,480 
Guatemala222,731 
Honduras637,391 
El Salvador108,781 
Nicaragua60,797 
Costa Rica6,198 
Trinidad and Tobago3,271 
Venezuela72,907 
Colombia150,515 
Guyana8,233 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Honduras, Venezuela
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 52 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 89 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 78 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 117 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Panama
Blue 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 98 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 77 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 142 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 219 2.3 million
- - - - United States, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC