Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (01 Jul 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 72 km/h 0.5 m 76 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMartinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados45,502
+
Martinique2,519 
Saint Lucia42,982 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Venezuela68,256
+
Dominican Republic39,121 
El Salvador21,916 
Venezuela6,998 
Costa Rica218 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Martinique, El Salvador, Honduras, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama6,724,793
+
United States210,780 
Bahamas37 
Cuba4,800 
Haiti949,379 
Dominican Republic3,786,385 
Dominica8,445 
Guatemala1,434 
Martinique21,561 
El Salvador174,405 
Honduras64,502 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines19,174 
Nicaragua9,863 
Colombia113,726 
Venezuela593,271 
Costa Rica709,158 
Panama57,865 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 171 Few people
- - - - Venezuela, Panama
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 214 70 thousand
- - - - United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Dominica, Guatemala, Martinique, El Salvador, Honduras, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC