Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
10 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Cuba, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Venezuela, Colombia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (07 Jul 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 1.0 m 553 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Venezuela, Colombia2,033,767
+
United States205,014 
Cuba1,132,538 
Martinique76,556 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines34,099 
Barbados284,214 
Venezuela23,874 
Colombia92,470 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 76 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 22 06 Jul 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 23 06 Jul 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 24 06 Jul 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 25 06 Jul 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - United States, Venezuela
GREEN 26 07 Jul 2021 00:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 27 07 Jul 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 07 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 07 Jul 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 08 Jul 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Colombia
GREEN 31 08 Jul 2021 06:00 61 -
- - - - - Colombia
GREEN 32 08 Jul 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 08 Jul 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Venezuela
GREEN 34 09 Jul 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Venezuela, Colombia
GREEN 35 09 Jul 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Colombia
GREEN 36 09 Jul 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 09 Jul 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 10 Jul 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Colombia
GREEN 39 10 Jul 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 40 10 Jul 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia611,833
+
United States81 
Nicaragua348,355 
Colombia159,136 
Venezuela422 
Costa Rica87,715 
Panama16,122 
100-250 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Guyana36,137,014
+
United States9,680,370 
Bahamas288 
Cuba1,242,718 
Haiti249,947 
Dominican Republic4,043,624 
Puerto Rico5,452 
Belize62,532 
Guatemala435,695 
Honduras877,437 
Nicaragua1,333,761 
El Salvador1,059,329 
Colombia4,259,478 
Venezuela2,980,276 
Trinidad and Tobago1,358,296 
Costa Rica4,695,982 
Panama3,841,182 
Guyana10,640 
50-100 mmUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Martinique, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama62,581,248
+
United States13,882,755 
Bahamas363,151 
Cuba5,391,398 
Haiti1,206,350 
Cayman Islands2,298 
Dominican Republic1,494,141 
Jamaica596,090 
Puerto Rico403,709 
Belize153,938 
Mexico860 
Guatemala1,863,662 
Guadeloupe20,282 
Honduras6,364,375 
Dominica3,004 
Nicaragua3,971,688 
Martinique81,475 
El Salvador5,018,221 
Saint Lucia62,184 
Colombia5,651,415 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines109,461 
Barbados284,214 
Grenada106,824 
Venezuela15,525,021 
Costa Rica24,135 
Panama583 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 166 -
- - - - - Honduras, Venezuela
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 52 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 89 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 78 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 117 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Panama
Blue 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 98 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 77 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 142 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 21 05 Jul 2021 18:00 148 70 thousand
- - - - Cuba
Blue 22 06 Jul 2021 00:00 80 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 23 06 Jul 2021 06:00 169 30 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 24 06 Jul 2021 12:00 113 -
- - - - - United States, Venezuela
Blue 25 06 Jul 2021 18:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 07 Jul 2021 00:00 22 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 07 Jul 2021 06:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 07 Jul 2021 12:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 29 07 Jul 2021 18:00 66 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 30 08 Jul 2021 00:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 31 08 Jul 2021 06:00 37 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 08 Jul 2021 12:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 08 Jul 2021 18:00 34 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 09 Jul 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 09 Jul 2021 06:00 35 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 09 Jul 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 09 Jul 2021 18:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 10 Jul 2021 00:00 99 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 39 10 Jul 2021 06:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 40 10 Jul 2021 12:00 411 910 thousand
- - - United States, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela, Guyana




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mUnited States00
+
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States, Cuba, Venezuela189,973
+
United States164,751 
Cuba8,905 
Venezuela16,315 
0.25 - 0.5 mUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama603,468
+
United States243,384 
Cuba14,805 
Mexico6,819 
Nicaragua28,889 
Colombia209,865 
Venezuela94,428 
Trinidad and Tobago4,523 
Panama751 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC